Interview: Ukraine crisis exacerbates Africa's socio-economic vulnerabilities, says expert

ADDIS ABABA, June 24 (Xinhua) -- The ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict is further exacerbating socio-economic vulnerabilities of Africa, which was already devastated by the COVID-19 pandemic, a senior economic expert has said.

Joseph Atta-Mensah, Principal Policy Adviser at the Macroeconomics and Governance Division of the UN Economic Commission for Africa (UNECA), told Xinhua that the Ukraine crisis "comes at a bad time" when the global economy is struggling to recover from the negative implications of the COVID-19 pandemic.

Noting that the Africa and the rest of the world have been facing rising inflation induced by higher prices for energy, food, and shipping costs prior to the Russia-Ukraine conflict, the expert warned that recent disruptions to supplies as well as higher food prices due to the conflict could cause increased hunger and food insecurity, with particular implications on Africa.

Atta-Mensah said due to the Russia-Ukraine conflict, UNECA projects Africa's economic growth at 3.6 percent in 2022, revised downwards by 0.4 percentage points from the December 2021 projections, reflecting the UNECA's preliminary assessment of the impact of the Ukraine crisis on African economies. The UNECA projects Africa's growth in 2023 at 3.3 percent.

Noting that African economies were already facing the brunt of the pandemic, Atta-Mensah, citing the UNECA's economic predictions, said Africa would need to grow at 6 percent during 2022-2023 to catch up to its pre-pandemic growth trajectory without taking into consideration the adverse impact of the Ukraine crisis.

He said the fight to mitigate the socioeconomic impact of the pandemic has caused debt in Africa to rise substantially, with the average debt-to-GDP ratio rising by 10 to 15 percentage points by 2021 from 60 percent in 2019.

He said estimates show that the pandemic also reversed hard-won gains in poverty reduction in Africa, pushing 47 million into extreme poverty, increasing the new poor by 55 million and adding 46 million people to those at risk of hunger and undernourishment.

Noting that Africa's GDP growth rebounded to 4.7 percent in 2021 from a contraction of 3.2 percent in 2020 due to the pandemic, the expert said the recovery in growth was due in part to pent-up demand following the relaxation of the COVID-19 restrictions, better global economic conditions, and the rebound in commodity prices over the period.

He, however, stressed that Africa's recovery at 4.7 percent in 2021 was the slowest compared to other regions. He said this was due to the limited fiscal space that constrained its fiscal support with its less diversified economic structure.

"Despite the recovery, the pandemic has left scarring effects that may drag Africa's output for a prolonged period, in part due to its adverse effects on human and physical capital accumulation," he said.

Last month, the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) had warned that the Ukraine crisis could further stall Africa's development trajectory already significantly jeopardized by the COVID-19 crisis.

The UNDP, in a report entitled "The Impact of the War in Ukraine on Sustainable Development in Africa," stressed that the Ukraine crisis is pushing the 2030 global SDGs and the aspirations of the African Union (AU)'s Agenda 2063 further out of reach. It called for immediate actions to avert further crises in Africa.

Meanwhile, Atta-Mensah recommended various measures to mitigate the double impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic and the Ukraine crisis on African economies.

He said African countries, which are already experiencing little fiscal space on the backdrop of the pandemic, should focus on their priority areas, while enhancing investments in health, food security and energy from cleaner sources.

"Policy measures are also needed to subsidize food accessibility to low-income groups, particularly women and children," he said.

He underscored that increases in social protection safety nets and other relevant measures are required to improve income in urban and rural areas to cope with the increasing food prices.

According to the expert, investments in building national food reserves and food security, which help to act as buffers and reduce vulnerability to food shortages and price increases, are key to Africa's socio-economic sustainability.

He further stressed that African governments need to finance immediate food supplies and safety nets to address the needs of the poor and for smallholder farmers who are facing higher input prices.