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Last updated at: (Beijing Time) Monday, June 10, 2002

Peace Benefits, While Fight Harms, Both Sides: Interview

On June 7, Indian and Pakistan troops crossed fire near the line of actual control in the disputed Kashmir, causing casualties of at least 25 Indian soldiers. On the night of the same day, an Indian unmanned reconnaissance airplane was brought down from Pakistan territorial airspace by Pakistani air force.


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On June 7, Indian and Pakistan troops crossed fire near the line of actual control in the disputed Kashmir, causing casualties of at least 25 Indian soldiers. On the night of the same day, an Indian unmanned reconnaissance airplane was brought down from Pakistan territorial airspace by Pakistani air force.

India and Pakistan have been in a state of intense confrontation in the Kashmir region since May, the two countries have kept on moving troops, burying mines and setting in battle array within their respective controlled areas, making war seem like breaking out at any moment, and the international community feel worried. Will a new war break out between India and Pakistan? Where does the crux of India-Pakistan conflict lies? What influence will it exert on the regional situation? Centering around the above questions, a Xinhua correspondent recently had an interview with Ma Jiali, a research fellow with the Institute on China Modern International Relationship, and expert on the South Asia issue.

Question: Three wars have broken out between India and Pakistan, in your opinion, will the present crisis trigger a fourth India-Pakistan war?

Answer: Although the possibility of a war, that might be triggered off by the confrontation between the two sides aggravated by new factors, cannot be ruled out, currently there exist many factors restricting war, leaders of India and Pakistan will size up the situation and avoid choosing war as the method for solving the problem, so it is barely possible for a fourth war to be erupted between India and Pakistan. This is because:

Firstly, the two countries do not have the desire to go to war, and there is no sign for a large-scale war shown by both sides in the aspects of security strategy, military strategy and diplomatic policy. Both Indian and Pakistani governments have, to different degrees, exercised restraint to prevent the low-intensity conflict from deteriorating into high-intensity war. India and Pakistan have been in long-term antagonism and have piled-up grievances, the situation featuring the escalation of armed confrontation resulted from the influence of incidents and domestic opinions is, in fact, a reflection of the long-term tense relations. India, if it wages war, will lose the public sympathy it received for the attacks it suffered.

Secondly, there are factors restricting war within both countries. The Indian side increases its military pressures, it only means to assume a high-handed posture in dealing with Pakistan. There are still many people within India who keep a clear head and oppose going to war. India's economy has just regained the good momentum of a high growth rate, which gives a push to the smooth progress of its economic reform and thereby enhances its overall national strength and establishes its position as a big power, getting bogged down in war at this moment is obviously unfavorable to itself. In recent years, Pakistan has been plagued by difficult domestic political and economic situation, many statesmen, scholars and even opposition parties think that war runs counter to national interests.

Thirdly, the international community is against the use of force by India and Pakistan. Various countries around the world, including the five permanent members of the Security Council of the

UN General Assembly, hope India and Pakistan will keep restraint, lower the intensity of military confrontation and solve the present crisis through political means.

Fourthly, nuclear deterrent restrains India and Pakistan from going to war. Since India's conventional forces are obviously stronger than Pakistan's, the Pakistan side has explicitly indicated that it will use all means including nuclear weapons for self-defense. A nuclear war will inflict destruction on both India and Pakistan, thus compelling the two sides to be cautious in talking about war.

Q: The main fuse of the new India-Pakistan crisis is the two incidents of violence attack on the India-controlled Kashmir area, what's the difference in the approach of India and Pakistan toward the incidents of attack?

A: Compared with the last December incident of attacks on the Indian Parliament, the recent two incidents of attacks is not particularly serious in nature, but under the current general "counter-terrorism" situation, India made a strong reaction in the capacity as a victim of terrorism, demonstrating its political determination as a big power, making an explanation to domestic public opinion and giving vent to its dissatisfaction with the closer relationship forged between the United States and Pakistan.

India imputes the recent situation to cross-border terrorism and regards Pakistan as the behind-the-scene plotter and manipulator and thus demands that the Pakistan side arrest the trouble-makers, dismantle the Kashmir guerrillas' training camp inside Pakistan and cuts off the economic sources from the terrorists and the activities of terrorist organizations, and even puts forward a two-month timetable for this.

But the Pakistani side maintains that the dispute over Kashmir has not been resolved yet, the "freedom fighters" in the India-controlled areas have taken actions for the realization of their ideals, Pakistan is duty-bound to give them moral and diplomatic support. Currently, there is no lack of moderates inside local armed organizations, but most are radicals and even religious extremists. Although the Pakistani government has clearly promised to attack all forms of terrorism, its influence and control power are limited in regard to these factions. Furthermore, Pakistani President Pervez Musharraf is presently in a difficult position as a result of his active support for US military actions in Afghanistan and he is also faced with tremendous domestic pressure and resistance. Under the joint pressure from India and the international community, the Pakistani side will possibly take some measures within its power to stop and limit the occurrence of similar incidents.

Q: Active mediation is being made by the international community in order to prevent India and Pakistan from rekindling the flames of war, do the relevant countries take the same starting point?

A: Relevant large countries do not hope to see war to break out in the South Asian region, but they each have different starting points. The United States is faced with the conflict between short-term and long-term interests. The United States is presently relying on Pakistan's support for its counter-terrorist war, but India is of great significance on US mid- and long-term strategic chessboard, the United States does not hope to see any possible destruction of this balance. Although Russia has special traditional relationship with India, it, however, does not hope to see any damage to Russia-Pakistan ties just because of the present crisis. China hopes there is a secure, stable and peaceful surrounding environment, at the same time, it is a close neighbor of both India and Pakistan, therefore it does not want to see their bilateral relations continue to deteriorate. Such being the case, various large countries around the world have all along been appealing and persuading India and Pakistan to maintain restraint and to resolve the crisis by peaceful means.

Q: In recent years, has the overall India-Pakistan relationship tended to become improved or gone on deteriorating? What impact will the current tense situation exert on the internal political situation of India and Pakistan and will it exert far-reaching influence on South Asian geopolitics? What is the way out for the Kashmir dispute?

A: Generally, the relationship between India and Pakistan is one of serious antagonism. Both sides had once worked hard to improve their relations and stabilize the situation. But due to the Kashmir issue, their relationship has so far witnessed no substantive improvement. Although there is the possibility for the deterioration of the present crisis, restricted by various internal and external factors, however, it is quite likely for the two sides to maintain the current situation instead of going too far. Their bilateral relationship is still in the stage of quantitative change and has not as yet reached the point of qualitative change.

A continued tense India-Pakistan relationship has a great negative effect on Musharraf's administration and Pakistan's domestic stability, it also poses a great threat to the stability of the Indian coalition government headed by the People's Party. Although both sides may possibly shift domestic contradictions by means of the tense situation, generally speaking, in doing so disadvantages outweigh advantages.

The tense situation will also hinder the efforts of India and Pakistan to develop relations with various large countries, which will, conversely, affect the large countries' strategic arrangements in South Asia. Relevant large countries hope to develop bilateral relations with India and Pakistan, they do not hope to see the tense situation obstruct and damage the balanced development of relations with both sides.

India has all along opposed the involvement of a third party in the Kashmir dispute, and it hopes for changing the line of actual control into a permanent international boundary line. The Pakistan side, which is weaker in national strength, hopes that this question, with the help of external force, can be resolved in favor of itself. The basic attitude of the United Nations and principal countries around the world is like this: willingness to help India and Pakistan solve the problem through negotiation on the preconditions acceptable to both countries.



By People's Daily Online


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