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Can increased U.S. military presence make Poland safer?

(Xinhua)    14:36, August 17, 2020

During U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo's visit here, Poland and the United States sealed a deal on military cooperation by signing the Enhanced Defense Cooperation Agreement (EDCA).

The agreement signed last Saturday, which makes Poland a staunch U.S. ally, is supposed to strengthen the European country's security. However, analysts have noted that it might be seen by Russia as provocation and broaden the discord among NATO (North Atlantic Treaty Organization) members.

TROOPS INCREASE

According to the EDCA, the total number of U.S. soldiers stationed in Poland will increase by 1,000 to around 5,500. Apart from that, the core of the deal consists of the creation of the forward command of the 5th U.S. Army Corps.

The infrastructures to be constructed would allow Poland to accommodate up to around 20,000 U.S. soldiers.

Polish Defense Minister Mariusz Blaszczak, signatory of the new defense pact, said that the agreement paved the way for permanent presence of U.S. troops in Poland and more military exercises to be conducted by the two armies.

Analysts have said that Poland has been coordinating its pace with the United States in various fields stretching from diplomacy, economy to security and military affairs.

Polish President Andrzej Duda has told media that Poland-U.S. relations have never been closer, and the two countries are committed to further cooperation on defense and economy.

Poland has long been seeking a larger U.S. military presence in the country, even suggesting the expenditure of 2 billion U.S. dollars to build a military base dubbed "Fort Trump" for U.S. troops' permanent stationing.

However, its pursuit of a closer relationship with the United States has raised controversy and criticism domestically, with regard to the potential immense expenditure and extraterritorial jurisdiction.

Blaszczak explained after the signing of the agreement that in cases deemed important, U.S. soldiers would be subject to Polish criminal jurisdiction, with the exception of acts committed while on duty.

"There is also no question of extraterritoriality of the facilities where American troops will be stationed," he added.

IRRITATING RUSSIA

In Warsaw's point of view, increased U.S. military presence consolidates the security of Poland and even the whole region. But according to some experts and analysts, such as Wolfgang Ischinger, chairman of the Munich Security Conference, the U.S. move could bring negative impacts.

Sylwester Szafarz, a Polish expert on international affairs, told Xinhua that it is questionable whether the move -- while enhancing the Polish relation with the United States but at the same time irritating neighboring countries -- would serve Poland's interest.

Analysts have also noted that NATO's eastwards movement sounds alarm for Russia, deteriorating the relations already fraught with difficulties between Warsaw and Moscow.

After U.S. President Donald Trump said in late June during his joint press conference with Duda that he would send some U.S. troops from Germany to Poland, Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Alexander Grushko said that Warsaw risked "the status of a frontline state," adding "they probably realize that the costs associated with this include their own security."

DIVIDING NATO

The inking of the EDCA came right after the U.S. announcement of troops withdrawal from Germany, making it possible for the United States to redeploy part of the soldiers to Poland.

Analysts have pointed out that for Washington, the redeployment serves two goals simultaneously -- penalizing Berlin for its "delinquency" on military spending, and awarding Warsaw for fulfilling its NATO "monetary obligation" and above all, a positive attitude towards Washington.

The unilateralist policy of "America First" adopted by the Trump administration has contradicted with the multilateralist approach of Germany and other U.S. traditional European allies on multiple issues, including military spending, Nord Stream 2 pipeline project and the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty.

The U.S. regrouping of forces in Europe was considered by critics as compromising and dividing NATO. William Courtney, a retired U.S. ambassador and now an adjunct senior fellow of U.S. nonprofit think tank RAND Corporation, told Xinhua that "by unsettling the NATO alliance once again, Trump's actions are likely to reduce Europe's confidence in U.S. support for its security."

In recent years, Poland has expressed its willingness to grant permanent U.S. military presence on its soil. Russian media have said the White House is concerned that if Poland reduces defense spending as it is secured by U.S. protection, Washington might face complaints from other NATO members and Moscow.

On top of that, enhancing military cooperation with Poland serves the Trump administration's domestic agenda. Douglas Paal, vice president for studies at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, pointed out that seeking re-election in November, the administration aims to gain Polish-Americans' support.

U.S. news daily The Washington Post has also reported that Trump wants to earn the votes of the Polish diaspora, which represented a considerable influence in 2016.

(For the latest China news, Please follow People's Daily on Twitter and Facebook)(Web editor: Wen Ying, Liang Jun)

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