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Yearender: Signs of recovery in Spain and Portugal offer hope for 2014 (2)

(Xinhua)    08:30, December 12, 2013
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October also saw a welcome fall in unemployment for the seventh consecutive month, although the unemployment rate stands at 15.7 percent, according to Eurostat.

The country could also be nearing the end of its bailout, which is due in April of next year. Drastic reforms and cutbacks introduced with the aim of reducing the public deficit to 3 percent by 2014 appear to be paying off. Portugal's deficit stood at 6.4 percent of GDP at the end of 2012 and is expected to end the current year at 5.5 percent.

The Spanish and Portuguese economies are applying severely restrictive fiscal policies (reduction of public spending and tax increases) which along with the failure to open lines of credit to small and medium sized companies and families, could have the effect of strangling internal consumption and business investment.

To try and avoid this problem, both economies are currently focusing on capturing external demand -- which is to say exports and tourism -- in an attempt to try and consolidate their recovery.

Spain's budget sees further spending cuts, while that of Portugal for the coming year condemns the country to further deep cuts in public spending with the aim of saving around 3.9 billion euros.

There are economic signposts which mean the majority of economic analysts are remaining cautious over questions of the consolidation and recovery of the Portuguese economy.

The country still has significant problems in finding external finance, while the continued application of an intense fiscal policy focused on cutting public spending, continues to hurt internal demand, while the high rate of unemployment (37.4 percent for those under 25) is another millstone slowing down expansion.

There are also important weaknesses which could slow down the reactivation of the Spanish economy: the lack of credit, the lack of control over the public deficit, the continued growth of the public debt and the continued net destruction of employment.

As a result, private spending continues to fall and creates huge problems in balancing the budget. Companies are cutting their R&D and investigation budgets, which could see them fall behind their competitors in the medium to long term.

Thus in both economies the key to consolidating change and sustaining growth is in their internal markets. What's vital is correctly applying stimuli to private economic agencies (companies and families), the selective reduction of indirect taxes on spending and direct taxes on low-earning families, efficient public spending and the public finance of R&D projects.

The end of the bailout in both countries will allow them to find external finance at a more reasonable cost on the markets, which in turn will stimulate greater autonomy in political decision making.

The Ahorro Corporation, one of the main investment service groups in Spain, believes that the Spanish stock market could grow by as much as 20 percent in 2014, to a level of around 12,000 points with GDP growing by as much as 1 percent.

It forecast companies floated on the IBEZ-35 market rising by 13.6 percent. Meanwhile the risk premium is expected to fall to around 150 points.

Nevertheless, all depends on decisions taken in the coming year to definitively exit the crisis.

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(Editor:KongDefang、Yao Chun)

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